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Barriers
to entry into the industrial base at any level for the US Department of
Defense (DoD) are steep, but nowhere more so than in the highest level of
aircraft manufacturing.
It is one
thing to join the ranks of component suppliers, but quite another to reach
the exalted status of prime contractor of a military aircraft. In the US
market for fixed-wing, manned military aircraft, there are generally only
three options: Boeing, Lockheed Martin and, to a lesser degree, Northrop
Grumman.
For two
decades, the sector of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) has proved the rare
exception, injecting a level of competition and innovation not seen in the
market for manned military aircraft in several decades.
While the
three major aircraft primes have won or acquired a significant share of UAV
contracts, new entrants have often challenged, and occasionally won against,
the primes for a seat at the prime contractor table.
AAI has
unveiled an improved M2 version of the ubiquitous RQ-7 Shadow (AAI)
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General
Atomics Aeronautical Systems and AeroVironment, for instance, have catapulted
from small to mid-tier suppliers to prime contractors responsible for
designing and integrating complete systems, including air vehicle, systems,
payloads and ground control station.
Still
other firms, including Insitu and AAI, have transformed small investments
made nearly two decades ago into now ubiquitous UAV platforms.
As a
result, both companies fashioned themselves into acquisition targets for
larger primes. Now, Insitu has been preserved as a standalone entity within
Boeing and AAI as a key division within the Textron Systems unit.
Meanwhile,
General Atomics' UAV division and AeroVironment continue to compete as
autonomous companies.
Few other
sectors in the aircraft industry can boast such recent success for accepting
new entrants. Even in the market segment for commercial aircraft, Richard
Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at the Teal Group, has concluded that
no new entrant has survived since the arrival of Embraer in the 1960s.
At the
same time, however, the competitiveness of the UAV sector can be overstated.
The DoD only began opening the largest contracts to competition in 2004.
Moreover, lurking in the shadow cast by the success of these four new entrants
is a harsher reality.
The next
wave of prospective new entrants as prime contractors for UAV
"programmes of record" - a term of art in military acquisition
denoting a contract with firm requirements for long-term output and
sustainment − may find few, if any opportunities in the decade ahead.
"This
is not the situation a decade ago where smaller companies had the potential
to make it big in the UAS [unmanned aircraft systems] industry," says
Philip Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the Teal Group.
One
reason for the lack of opportunity is the US defence budget, which is primed
to enter a spending downcycle expected to persist for several years. As
budgets constrict, even the sectors most in demand, which would include UAVs,
are likely to feel the pinch.
Seemingly
at odds with the budget trend is the operational commanders' demand for the
services provided by UAVs, which is dominated by the mission area for
intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and target acquisition. As
the Afghanistan mission winds down, the US Air Force is projecting the need
for more sorties by its General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper squadrons, says Ron
Stearns, a research director for the Seattle-based G2 Solutions consultancy.
The
effect on the industrial base is that more dollars will be devoted to
operations and maintenance accounts, at the expense of investment in the new
capabilities that offer opportunities to the next wave of new entrants.
"There
is less and less money announced for smaller [UAV] companies," Stearns
says.
Another
factor changing the UAV industrial landscape is a strategic shift by the DoD
from irregular to conventional threats.
Facing
the non-traditional opponents of the past decade, the DoD was more open to
seeking solutions from non-traditional suppliers. That attitude is changing,
with a renewed emphasis on conventional capabilities, such as survivability
and access to denied airspace.
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An
unmanned version of the K-Max is being assembled in Afghanistan (US Marine
Corps)
"I
see the pendulum swinging back violently and quickly to more of a
conventional acquisition paradigm," Stearns says.
UAV
contracts are awarded in two broad categories. The first of these is a
programme of record, and the other is a rapid reaction or one-off
demonstration contract.
Programmes
of record in the fixed-wing military UAV sector have divided into five tiers,
each now with an established supplier to the DoD.
Each
represents a programme that has matured past the point of demonstration and
experimentation, with millions or billions budgeted for production and
sustainment.
"The
potential for large and small companies to radically change their position is
really quite limited in this environment," says Finnegan.
At the
top of the list, in terms of dollar value, is the Northrop RQ-4B Global Hawk
and MQ-4C Triton. Below that level is the family of General Atomics UAVs for
the medium--altitude mission, which include the MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1C Gray
Eagle.
AAI has
locked up the programmes of record for a brigade-level UAV with the RQ-7
Shadow. Boeing Insitu's ScanEagle helped define the requirement for a small
tactical UAS, and the company owns the replacement contract for the RQ-21A
Integrator.
AeroVironment's
family of hand-launched UAVs, led by the RQ-11 Raven, dominates the programme
of record for the lowest tier.
In each
of these categories, there still remain challengers seeking to win a share of
the market or replace the incumbent entirely.
The
candidates typically promise a radical increase in capability, whether it is
the hand-launched Lockheed Stalker powered by laser energy or the
high-altitude Boeing Phantom Eye using liquid hydrogen as fuel. Such
challengers have pushed the incumbents to respond by investing in capability
improvements for the existing platforms.
"In
a time when there aren't going to be new programmes, the focus is going to be
on retaining what you have and upgrading it," Finnegan says. "The
established players really have a strong advantage."
More
opportunity for disruption exists in the UAV sectors and mission areas that
have not fully matured.
Northrop's
MQ-8B Fire Scout pioneered the role of a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL)
UAS, particularly for the ISR mission.
The Insitu
RQ-21 Integrator: now a prime player (US Navy)
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The
appetite for unmanned VTOL capability appears to be growing, with Northrop
teaming with Bell Helicopter to offer a modified 407 as the MQ-8C.
As a larger
aircraft, it will be capable of growing into new roles, such as autonomous
cargo delivery, but it will not be alone.
"The
VTOL sector is kind of where the whole UAV market was prior to 2001," says
Larry Dickerson, an analyst with Forecast International.
Challenging
the MQ-8C are new entrants including a Kaman/Lockheed team demonstrating an
unmanned version of the K-Max helicopter in Afghanistan and the Boeing A160
Hummingbird, which the prime contractor acquired from Frontier Systems, and
which was founded by Abe Karem − the inventor of the Predator.
In both
cases, the "new entrant" represents established, traditional DoD
prime contractors for rotorcraft and other types of aircraft. The same dynamic
is likely to re-emerge with the US Navy's requirement for an unmanned
carrier-launched aircraft for surveillance and strike, where the competitors
include Boeing, General Atomics, Lockheed and Northrop.
Stephen Trimble, Flight International, 7 August 2012
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